On DYN

If I did not have this damned insomnia, I don't know when I'd write. So I guess the insomnia isn't so damned after all.

Anyways, what should I write about...

I could write about real life I suppose. I suppose. Actually, its suprising how often I do. But most of the time its not in any legible form. But its real life. Just twisted around a little.

But maybe I should write about real, real life. Yes, that's what I'll do. Real, real life. here it goes.

This morning I woke up from a fitful sleep in which I dreamt that my treasured investment had multiplied significantly. Strangely enough I wasn't that happy about it.

In the dream I was tormented by my new found riches. Not by the riches themselves though. I need to explain. I'll get specific. My investment is a stock. A single stock. I own many stocks, but one particular stock makes up a massive percentage of my total. Its probably over 50% of everything I own.

Now you don't have to tell me about the dangers of not diversifying. And you don't have to tell me I'm gambling quite big. I am well aware of all that.

But this the only way I can think of to gain my position. And I need a position so I can quit this silly day job and not have to write in the dead of night when I can't sleep.

So I've chosen to bet the farm. If I win, I retire before I'm 30. If I lose, I'm in it for the long haul.

And don't think that I'm gambling blind. I have done a lot of research. I have done exhaustive research. I'm constantly reevaluating. I'm as sure as I can be. Unfortunately its the market, where certainty doesn't mean a hill of beans. So I could still lose.

But such is life. The single beauty of the stock market lies in this uncertainty and the fine, maybe even arbitrary, line between right and wrong.

But back to the dream. In my dream I wasn't happy. The stock had gone up; I think it was worth about 3x as much as it is now, which would have meant I was well on my way. But not there yet. And in those two statements is the reason I wasn't happy. I wasn't happy because I was fretting. I was fretting about what to do.

Its easy right now. I don't have enough money to make the decision difficult. I don't have much to lose. The only thing that will make me sell right now is if I see something is going on with the company that I don't like. But later on, as its stock moves up, gradually I will have more to lose. I'll have more of my entire worth tied up in that one stock. And the decision will increase in weight.

Its the burden of actually being right.

Now I don't know if I'll get to that point. After all, I have to be right first to get there. I've been right so far, but that's no ticket for the future. The stock needs to triple or something thereabouts. And after it triples, for this decision to arise, there still has to be good reason to hold on. Otherwise, the reasonable decision is to just get out. Don't be piggish. But if it does triple and everything is still on track, it will be interesting to see how I react. And whether I will succumb to the urge to protect the gains, to take some money off the table, or whether I will hold onto it still, even with so much more to lose.

Hopefully I'll get to find out.
- posted by Sigurd4/27/2004 11:59:00 PM