Guess

Mr. Smith, if I may be allowed to address the bone and not the marrow, then allow me to make the introduction of this small band of thieves. These, kind sir, are your worst nightmare.

You cringe. You whisper something inaudible to that crony on the right, that pompous fool who laughs too loud to disguise a nervous tick. He blasphemies your name and dallies out of context. Its a pity you have no choice but to allow it, to shift in your dirt at best.

But he is a fool and I want nothing of him. You, on the other hand, are not. You sense very well the ice in my veins. After all, we are both quite dead.

Yes, cringe, you have every right. For I care nothing of your laws. Your marginal this and your balanced that. Your silly fascination with productivity. As an end, not a means. What fool do you take me for! As if there were some heaven of history that might reckon you some day and bestow a earthly paradise because of your divine efficiency. Next I suppose I should expect an old bearded fellow sitting on the street corner, wearing nothing but a dirty robe and sandals, and in his hand a sign - '7% growth - your ticket to the gates'. Of all your delusions, and there are so many, at least admit this - The future is no god. But you admit nothing. You are most excellent at silence, I give you that. So I say fuck it to it all.

I laugh at the silly ladders you climb. Don't you know they only lead to dirt. Climb to fall like a soldier to his massacre. Your petty deadlines. To get ahead. One up. First to market. Hit the window. Do it quick before your dead.

Yes, now you cringe. I saw you, and don't deny it. 'Make sure that they are few,' whispers the one behind. 'They're just a petty nuisance,' says another beside. Silly youth you say, and now you laugh nervously, as I have touched your nerve and you have felt my chill. But you know damn well that the weapon I carry cannot be conquered and will not be bought.

Who am I? Do you really want to know? I am many things. Most of all I am nothing. I am idle. I am lethargic in every regard but to insure I do not change. I am your confidence without the consumer. I am negative retail sales. I am a fifteen year replacement cycle. I am chaos. I am 0% prime. I am an unmotivated worker. I am buses and trains and bicycles. I am a plunger. I am irrational. I am an empty wallet and a full bank account. One that keeps on growing and growing and growing. For a rainy day of course. When the hard rain begins to fall.

I am all of that. I have seen it all and I don't care to see it anymore. I have had it all and I am full. I have touched everything that you have to tempt me with, and now your vice is nothing but a tick. I brush it off and continue on my way.

Well, I best be going now. Off to my castle. Good luck to you. And don't bother begging for a loan.

- posted by Sigurd11/26/2004 11:26:00 PM

 
Just watching that hopeless little screen

'You don't write anymore.'
'No, I don't.'
'Why is that?'
'I couldn't handle the hangover.'
'Come again?'
'I can't string a sentence when I'm sober.'
'That's true.'
'And once I start I can't stop.'
'Drinking?'
'Writing.'
'Cuz it gets better with each drink. The connections become clearer. The world more obvious. More alive.'
'Uh huh.'
'Until I pass out.'
'The next morning I swear I won't do it again. But I always did. Until now.'
How long has it been?'
'6 months or so.'
'Do you still want to?'
'Every night.'
'That's a shame. You were good.'
'A man's gotta put himself ahead of the world.'
'In these times I guess.'
'Yeah. Do me a favour will you. Go over and turn on the TV.'
- posted by Sigurd11/23/2004 10:55:00 PM

 
By way of Biggar

The pilgrimage to Moose Jaw takes place during the second week of November. It has been going on for longer then she can remember, so long that she is not even certain of why. Nevertheless, it does not occur to her to do anything but.

Moose Jaw in November is despairing. The prairie stretches as far as the eye can see without suggestion of divulging a slightest hint. One can easily forget where they are in Moose Jaw, and perhaps that is why it is here that has been chosen as the destination.

On a rare year the land is already white with snow, but more often the fields are bare with brown and stubble. They have pillaged some months before and now they are left abandoned, soon to be victom to the strangling ice of winter.

And thus, it is into such a land that these five transverse, first on the highway, to the western limits of the small city, and then by way of gravel to where the road ends, and finally on foot, turning up the dirt of where the city has yet to reach.

It is there that they begin the fire, and there that they grasp hard at each other, and hard at the flask, and there that they shout the obsenities to that heartless beast that lost from them their eden, and transport them here, to this prairie, where another winter will soon commence, and all that it touches will wither and die.

- posted by Sigurd11/21/2004 07:00:00 PM

 
'So yes, he's explaining that crazy double slit experiment. And he's comparing it to water waves. And if molecules of water can act as a wave through a double slit then surely light can too.'

'But no, because with light you can send those particles through one by one and you still get the interference pattern. One by one and they still interfere. They interfere with nothing because there's nothing but themselves. If you did the same with water, obviously you wouldn't get that effect.'

'So its dead right? Well no, I don't think so. Because light has no notion of time. And that's the difference. The water is being sent one by one. But in time.'

'One by one. That means nothing at all if time does not exist.'

- posted by Sigurd11/20/2004 11:44:00 PM

 
The darkest light

When I go deep enough. When I strip the layers, the wants and desires, the fears and apprehensions, and when I refuse death and admit I understand that nothing is inherent, then what I find, appearing as a tiny point, appearing to reside in my mind, imagined in my mind, but real, so real, surrounded by an empty, hovered as a single photon, I find the observer.

And the observer is nothing. The observer has no characteristics, no shape or size, there is nothing by which to distinguish, except that is and is because it observes. It wants nothing, it requires nothing, because it is nothing but is. And for some reason, it has found itself there, in my mind. But as it is nothing, it will perservere, and continue to observe amidst all the tumult that might be afflicted upon this form in which it happens to be travelling. The observer. Watching and listening, patient, it has no need and no where to be, for nothing needs nothing. Motion? Time? A recording? Or something altogether else. It does, and that is observe.

And this observer, it has with it a great stillness. It is almost frightening to be so still. So still. Because is nothing. And impartial to what it observes. For all observations there is equanimity.

And so I ask myself - what is this point? And its point? Why observe? Why exist at all, just to observe? I don't understand that yet. Its not obvious and I'm too slow. Except that that this observer does observe, through time that is why, and I can't help but think that it cannot be all absurd.

- posted by Sigurd11/17/2004 09:55:00 PM

 
Will somebody please explain to me the logic behind logic?

Quite seriously. It just doesn't make sense.

All those hours and textbooks and wasted nights, determining the nuances of yawn yawn yawn.

Its a real shame someone couldn't have had a little bit of foresight and saved everyone a lot of time.
- posted by Sigurd11/16/2004 11:40:00 AM

 
Black bodied snow

During this time of year, if you are in the north, you will notice that it is dark by 5. And in the morning it will stay dark until 8. As you go north, and as December comes, it will be dark even longer, dark for most of the clock.

You will go to work in the morning in the dark. You will come home at night in the dark. You will never see the sun.

The days and nights will be cold and dark, almost indistinguishable from one another. Day does not destroy the night up here, not now. Instead they come together as one.

The sun, it bothers my eyes and gives me headaches. The heat, it makes me ill. But that is frivolous and its not about that. Its about the beauty of the dark. The dark and the cold, and how everything just disappears, swallowed up by steamy sewers, cloaked by the glow of orange streetlights.


Nothing matters on such a cold night. Not how you look, or what you wear, or what you say. Too cold to possibly want, what appears is nothing but a possibility, with nothing defined and nothing ruined.

Silhouettes of naked trees highlighted by the moon. A foreboding picket fence covered in snow across the way. The eery light from a foggy upstairs window that seems to always be on. Black figures in long cloaks and toques, yes toques, whom you can never quite make out at such an early hour, but who instantly remind you to check to see if the back door is bolted.

Its all so beautiful.

And then there are the ghosts. You can never feel the ghosts in the light. The ghosts take leave in summer. They know they don't belong in bright meadows or grassy fields. But when its dark and when its cold and that's just why its called the dead of winter, you know that the icy November wind is not just air whistling past. And you know you're not alone, that nothing can be seen in either direction, and so here you and they are on equal footing.


- posted by Sigurd11/12/2004 11:59:00 PM

 
'She was really very pretty.'
'When I would go over, there would always be a boy there. She always had boys over. She was ravishing.'
'I remember the first time he was there. He was in her room. I had come over to pick something up for mother and there he was. I was so surprised. Back then you just didn't have a boy in your room.'

'I still don't see how someone could do that?' 'Well, he was high powered. He was one of those people.' 'He'd beat her. It started soon after they were married. When he'd have a bad day with no sales he'd come home and he'd beat her.' 'But we didn't know that till after.' 'I mean, who was he? I mean, we know he is now. But was it obvious?' 'He was a real go getter.' 'He was very successful. He won salesman of the year more then once.' 'He was driven.' 'He was the MC at our wedding you know. He was one of those people who could be very charming.' 'But couldn't anyone see past it?' 'Maybe Bill could. He never was comfortable around him.' 'He was really quite nice. And most of the time he was good to her' 'They went to Hawaii once with one of the trips he won.'

'But I still don't get it. He just left her. How could someone do that?'
'He said he couldn't stand to see his wife like that.'
'It's unbelievable.'
'He remarried I heard. He's back in Vernon.'
'As soon as Darlene got sick. As soon as the arthritis became too much.'
'He just picked up and left.'
'I still can't believe it. How does he live with himself? How does someone do that and go on with life? Its not even right that they can do it. That they can go on. There should a god damnit, that just says no - this is not right.'
'Wilma does well for her though. She's stayed with her ever since. Helping with the wheel chair, with the food and all that.'
'She's a good sister.'
'Its good that she has Wilma though.'
'And I can't believe that either. I can't believe we could have a world with both Wilma and him.'

- posted by Sigurd11/10/2004 06:44:00 PM

 
You can learn a lot from old men in tattered clothes.

'There's two way you can look at history,' he said, 'and it depends whether you believe there's a purpose or not.'

It seemed so strange. Here we were in the middle of a shopping mall. At this cheap, metal table right below the down excalator across from, I don't know, what was it? Arby's? I think it was a across from Arby's. But he didn't seem to care, he just kept on talking. And I listened.

'Now lets suppose you believe there's a purpose. It seems innocent enough, but its actually pretty dangerous. Because if you believe there's a purpose, then you might just believe that you know what that purpose is. And if you know the purpose of history, well then, you better go out and make it happen.'

'Of course, you might just be some crackpot that hears voices. Doesn't matter though. You know you're right and you know what's right and that's what matters. That matters, and if you have power matters. If you have power, then you can change history'

I nodded with diligence.

'Now, the second way to look at it, this way is much more difficult. In this way, you don't believe that there's a purpose. You don't believe in necessity at all. its just existential. It just is.'

But he was quickly serious again.

'Well, if you believe this you will be much more cautious. You won't jump into anything. You be more likely to accept someone else's opinion. You'll accept debate. You probably be more likely to obey the rules and laws. Because you know that there's nothing out there that says you're right. The future is a mystery. All you know is you don't know who's right. So it could easily be you.'

I thought I understood, and I was excited as I wanted him to hear it. 'From the first comes tyranny,' I said, 'And from the second comes democracy,' and then after a pause, 'But I don't think we've quite figured that out yet.'

He nodded and took another sip of the coffee.
- posted by Sigurd11/09/2004 10:22:00 AM

 
The current account deficit, the US dollar, and global trade - building babel on credit

Now that the election is over we can focus on some other things going on in the world. I know everyone finds economics boring, but I actually think its pretty fascinating. And right now its a little scary.

Anyways, there is a unique set of events unfolding right now regarding the relationship of the US current account deficit, the US dollar, global trade and the relationship that has developed between the US and the rest of the world that has fostered global growth over the past few years. In particular, there is growing concern over sustainability of this relationship, as well as growing concern over the US dollar, whose value is tied to how well this relationship functions. Whether the dollar will fall further, and what such a fall will mean to the world, are both questions worth looking at. Though we can't be sure how, we'll undoubtably be impacted by such events.

A substantial devaluation of the world’s reserve currency, the dollar, could means some big changes to the way the world has worked over the last few years. This period has been termed the ‘US-centric global growth paradigm’ by Stephen Roach, Chief economist for Global Economic Analysis for Morgan Stanley in a recent paper. Some might welcome the end of this period, others might see it as destabilizing. I think I've stated my bias clearly enough in other posts, so in the following I will stick to just analysing the situation. I will get into some of the possible impacts of a falling dollar in a moment. For now I just want to go through the relationships by which the US dollar is valued, and state the case that says these relationships may not be sustainable, meaning the dollar may fall. The argument that the US dollar will fall is derived from the unsustainability of the current account deficit. Stephen Roach notes that the US current account deficit continues to widen. It has risen ‘from 4.5% in late 2003 to 5.7% in mid-2004’. To put this number in perspective, it means that ‘the US is now absorbing over 80% of the world’s surplus saving' to balance to outflow of dollars for trade.

So why does the US run such a large current account deficit? And what does this mean to the value of the US dollar?

Its pretty straightforward. The US runs a large current account deficit because it can import goods and services cheaper than it can produce them at home. This sends dollars abroad in order to purchase these goods.

Counter-balancing this outflow of dollars is an inflow of dollars due to the financial account surplus. Foreign investors, awash in dollars they’ve received for goods and services Americans are buying from them, invest those dollars back into the US in exchange for things like treasury bills and mortgage backed securities and corporate bonds and stocks.

These foreign investors are comprised of private investors, who want to invest in the US for a myriad of reasons (good returns, perceived safety, large and stable companies) as well as foreign central banks, particularly Asian central banks, that buy US debt in order to keep their own currencies from appreciating against the dollar.

The value of the dollar is essentially determined by this relationship. For example, if the current account was out of balance with the financial account, that would mean there were more dollars going abroad then were returning back home. Basically, there would be a greater supply of dollars then demand for dollars. Thus, the value of the dollar, as measured against other currencies, would fall. The reason the dollar hasn’t fallen dramatically this year as the current account deficit has risen (please be aware that the dollar has fallen over the last few years, just not as much as you might think given the size of the current account deficit) is because there has been such strong demand for US debt (in other words such a strong financial account surplus) and this has offset the outflow of dollars from the current account deficit.

And this is because of the Asian central banks.

The reason why Asian central banks are buying US debt is also pretty straightforward. Most Asian countries, most notably China, have economies that are driven by exporting goods to the US. Thus, they don’t want their currency to rise against the US dollar because that would mean their exports to the US would go up in price. So (through a bit of a complicated process that I won't go into here) China and other central banks buy US treasuries to hold down the value of their own currency. Japan also buys a lot of treasuries, but they are more concerned that the yen doesn’t rise against the Chinese yuan because Japan exports so many goods and services to China. To avoid this, as long as China pegs their currency to the US dollar, the Japanese are forced to do the same.

The bottom line of all of this is that China and Japan, and to a lessor extent the other Asian countries, are all involved in a vast ‘financing’ of the US by willingly buying US debt instruments to keep their currencies from appreciating against the dollar and against each other.

This of course begs the question: is it reasonable to expect the Asian central banks to continue to purchase American debt at such an enourmous rate?

There are a number of factors that make this unlikely.

For one, China is suffering from a big increase in commodity prices (oil, copper, steel, aluminum, on so on) and this is squeezing profits on Chinese businesses. As Donald Coxe, Chief Strategist of Harris Investment management notes, ‘global commodity prices have jumped 43% over the past 12 months, but prices of Chinese exports have gone up less then 2% over the same period.’ If these firms don’t have the money to pay back loans they owe to the Chinese banks, the results could be disasterous, creating a massive banking crisis. China’s banking system is tenuous at the best of times.

The trick here is that most commodities are denominated in US dollars. The removal of the US dollar peg to the Chinese yuan would ease the impact of high commodity prices on Chinese manufacturers.

Of course it would also initiate a devaluation of the dollar.

A second factor is that it appears that private foreign investors are beginning to become wary of investing further in the US. As Stephen Roach notes, the latest data for US treasury purchases show that ‘an average of $61 billion was purchased in July and August of this year versus a $76 billion average in the prior 10 months and that ‘over the 12 months ending August 2004, 33% of net foreign purchases of long-term US securities have come from the official sector, up from 15% the previous year.

In the environment of a rising current account deficit, the US needs more foreign investors to buy treasuries, not less. Yet the data seems to suggest the opposite, and that more of the burden is being put on central banks.

This brings up the question of whether its even possible for foreign central banks to extend their purchases of treasuries, even supposing they wanted to. As the current account deficit increases and private investors shy away from the increasingly risky US economy, are the Asian central banks going to even have the resources to take on more US debt? And for how long?

I don’t know the answer to this, but as Coxe notes, quoting Stein’s law, 'if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.' It seems likely that this to will end. And with the above mentioned factors, maybe sooner rather than later.

Of course, the next question is what this all means? What does it mean if the dollar devalues? The answer is that it could mean a lot of things, none of which are certain and many of which are frightening. But I’ll leave that for next time.

- posted by Sigurd11/07/2004 07:24:00 PM

 

It all starts with a woman and her talking boat. This dream that is.

But don't be mistaken. This isn't a dream.

Together they would float. The woman and her talking boat. And had there been others they would have spoke slyly of her, out of the side of their mouths and with crooked tongues. 'A woman, talking to a boat!' they would boast, 'What good is she, floating all day. And by what? Look at her. Not even with a paddle. At the mercy of the current, nevertheless!', and they would shake their heads disdainfully and walk off in disgust.

And the woman would blush and be red, and soon after that she would be ashamed, and later that night, having been tucked away, she would be compelled to abandon her boat, because how silly it is to have a boat, and for it to talk, and for her to do nothing at all but travel at the mercy of the current all day.

But that was not to be, because this time, because this isn't a dream, there were no others. There were only trees on the shores and the river below. And our two companions, floating together, lost admidst the wonderment.

- posted by Sigurd11/05/2004 10:23:00 AM

 
How do you change the minds of men

And not like Walter Lippman. Propaganda and media control are not the issue. They've been long perfected.

But how do you change the minds of men, so that they see what they are doing?

The facts! Right? Wrong. The facts don't work. The facts have been tried. They just bounce off. This many dead. That many unemployed. This big a deficit. That amount of profits. It doesn't have any effect.

The facts aren't real. They're just numbers. When a fact is said, its not easy to imagine its reality. When you hear about that many dead, you don't immediately conjure the image of the bodies, the crying loved ones, the blood, the screams. You could conjure up that image, but you would have to really think about it to do it. Most people don't think that hard. And most of the time the facts are coming at you so quickly that before you can the next fact is already on top of you, clouding the memory of the first.

The reality is not the facts. So what is it?

The reality is emptiness.

If we could just grasp that, it would change everything. Because suddenly all of the bad things would not be worth doing. Because it wouldn't matter. The profits wouldn't matter. And the politics wouldn't matter. And the amount of economic growth wouldn't matter. And we'd look at all these things and giggle, because we'd see they're all so silly and we'd think of how silly we were to think they mattered.

'But they do matter! Look at what is happening. Look around at the world,' shouts a good soul from the crowd.

That's confusing the cause with the effect. The effects of these bad things matter because they are hurting people and they are hurting the world. But these bad things that we say are the cause and that they matter because they are the cause are not the cause. We are the cause. And we are the cause because we can't see they don't matter.

To change the minds of men we don't need to be convinced that this way or that way is right, or be forced to do as we do, or to be as we are. We just have to show us the emptiness of reality, the emptiness that's right there in front of us when we look at it and admit the truth that we know we're all going to die.

Once we understand that, the rest is old, dead skin. It will wither with time, and fall away. And what's left, will be beautiful.

- posted by Sigurd11/03/2004 06:07:00 PM